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Predicting the U.S. recovery: Some leading indicators are better than others

By Beata Caranci, Director of Economic Forecasting, TD Bank Financial Group

An American flag hangs in front of a family home, with a father and son looking on.Now that market participants have acknowledged the reality of a market downturn in the U.S., the question has become, “When can we expect a recovery?” This article will look at the advantages of using leading financial indicators over leading economic indicators in predicting the end of a recession.

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Could ‘peak oil demand’ put a ceiling on soaring prices?

By Derek Burleton, Associate Vice President and Director of Economic Studies, TD Bank Financial Group

A parked SUV overlooks a mountain road in Alberta.With talk of peak global oil supply accompanying record fuel prices, oil is a hot commodity. This article will look at whether an answer to the price-driving “peak supply” question could come in the form of slowing demand over the next year.

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The information in this newsletter is current as of July 18, 2008.